Hildebrandt/ Citi Client Advisory: Slow Growth For Law Firms in 2010

Considering the contraction in 2009, this isn’t as newsworthy as it might appear. In fact, there is little evidence 2010 will be much better than 2009 according to the Advisory:

“However, while the profession is no longer in crisis mode, we recognize that firms will remain under intense pressure to create new models for pricing and delivery of legal services,” DiPietro said in a news release. “The report addresses these issues as well as the industry’s response to the current market environment.”

I suppose this will lead to another in depth discussion of alternative fee arrangements.  How novel.

Some highlights:

• Realization continues to drop in spite of efforts to raise rates to offset drops in demand;
• Pressure for discounting, fee caps, multi-year rate schedules and alternative pricing increases;
• Increases in “negotiated” rates are being offset by drops in “collected rates”, leading to the lower realization;
• Firms chose to cut expenses, especially compensation costs, to offset losses (a typical reaction);
• Biglaw firms fared better than smaller firms, mostly due to dramatic purging of staff and cost controls;
• Significant improvements seen in 2009 in demand for Mergers and Acquisitions, general corporate, tax, capital markets, and real estate practices;
• Expect further cost cutting measures in 2010 (ie, not likely to be a boom year for technology vendors seeking to encourage firm investment in technology).

A look at the effects on key profit drivers:

• Productivity still in negative growth “driven to some extent by associate pushback on the unsustainable billable hour requirements in many firms”;
• Leverage is increasing to make up for declining productivity (which makes no sense as this drives up costs without adding value);
• Realization, as earlier stated, is in steady decline;
• Expenses had been a source of continual growth until 2009;
• Growth prior to 2009 was consistently driven by rate increases between 6 to 8 per cent annually;
• Expectations for future rate increases are low due to increased client resistance.

The Advisory mentions something that I have touted for years:  the need for improved efficiency to maximize profitability.  During the boom years, it enhanced an already profitable model.  Now, it will be a necessity to offset rate stagnation.

Legal Current has more on the advisory.  To read their take and download a copy of the Advisory, click here.

False Sense Of Security Still Prevalent Among Law Firms

In spite of overwhelming evidence that the booming economy enjoyed practically uninterrupted for the past 20 years has ended, at least for the near term, many law firms are still optimistic of their 2009 prospects.  I beg to differ.  I believe 2009 will start a strong shift in the make-up of many law firms due to the lack of any planning for the economic conditions.

Who can blame attorneys for being optimistic?  Regardless of the economy since at least the early 1980′s, lawyers have enjoyed consistently increased business and profits.  This has led to a complacency and a denial of the economic conditions that are facing the country.

Law firms aren’t alone.  In fact, the “big three” auto makers (Ford perhaps excepted) are acting out of a similar denial as they attempt to scare Congress and the President into paying for their internal problems.  Who didn’t see the failure of GM coming?  Was no one noticing the extravagant pensions being offered to the employees?  Did anyone who dared notice believe the ever slimming margins would cover the ever growing benefits?   Not likely.  As the Legislative and Executive branches delve deeper into the phantom pockets of our tax base, a  nice summary of the fallacy of “avoiding acting like Herbert Hoover” has been inked in an opinion piece by Todd J. Zywicki in the Wall Street Journal.

Law firms, though not nearly in the long-term slide as the domestic auto industry, is more sensitive to this economic downturn than many attorneys would like to admit.  Many firms have been spoiled by margins that exceed 50% without spending more than a passing glance at the indicators that led them to such bounty.  The issue isn’t so much a drop-off in business, though some firms who specialize in areas that are in the midst of collapse will certainly feel the pain.  Rather, the issue is how firms will retain good talent, retain their expected incomes and avoid layoffs of associates.

These are regular issues for most industries but are foreign to the mid-size law firm.  Many firms pride themselves in their “family” atmosphere, which includes the bratty sibling rivalries that are tolerated when times are good.  Salary incongruousness may seem a bothersome itch when profits are high, but once the deadwood becomes heavy the scratching becomes intolerable.  Some may panic to find their balance sheet showing a loss without ever seeing it coming.  Drastic change is put into place – at a time no worse to prepare.  No more is it wise to visit a market when hungry than to suggest change while in the midst of a spiral.

Yet our economy has afforded all of us time to prepare.  It was suggested by many (myself included as far back as March) that our economy was in for some hard times.  Firms with the foresight and gumption to plan and hold timekeepers accountable for providing not only quality service to their clients but ensuring prompt billing and payment for the betterment of the long term financial health of the firm are in a position now to profit over the firms who were complacent.

It’s not too late, however.  Many firms are just now seeing the first bumps in the road.  It is my opinion that the economic downturn is just now really beginning to hit middle America.  The massive layoffs (over 533,000 in November) are an indicator that the many months of body blows caused by the collapse of the credit and housing markets (not so unlike what happened in the late 1920′s, speaking of Herbert Hoover) are finally taking its toll.  The question now is, where is the bottom?

No one knows.  That is a troubling concern that should make you want to hug every dollar your firm receives and not let go of it.  In times such as these, power goes to those who hold cash.  This may change if our government attempts to over-spend its way out of our economic downturn (thereby devaluing the dollar, leading possibly to hyperinflation combined with stagnant productivity – a prescription for the “d” word), but as of right now, many believe that the economy should rebound sometime in 2010.

In my opinion, firms need to pay more attention to the profitability of each fee earner and place more emphasis on marketing activities and their key profit drivers.  Please feel free to email me (by clicking here) if you would like some ideas on how to not only retain your current income, but increase profits during an economic downturn.

The Role Of “Effective Rate” To Law Firm Profitability

There are 6 main profit drivers for all law firms:  Rate, realization, leverage, margin, operating expenses and cash flow.  Rate can be tracked in several ways.

• Standard rates are rates you would charge a client, all things being equal.  These are typically your highest rates.
• Worked rates are your actual rates you charge a client.  Worked rates are affected by client negotiation or perceived need to reduce rates to stay competitive.
• Billed rates are rates after you invoice a client.  Billed rates take into consideration both mark-downs and discounts.
• Collected rates are the final hourly fee after the invoice has been reduced to a zero balance.  Collected rates take into consideration write offs and other post-bill adjustments.

Rate can be measured from standard to billed or worked to billed to judge how well you are converting your work to invoiced fees.  These rates are measured on an accrual-basis.

Rates can also be measured from billed to collected.  These rates are measured on a cash-basis.

However, to get a full view of what happens to your standard rate as work moves through the billing cycle, firms need to measure the effective rate.  The effective rate can be measured either from standard to collected or worked to collected.

Measuring effective rate means creating targets, forecasting results, and holding your fee earners accountable for results.

The below chart shows how you can measure effective rate.  Click on the graph to download.

Tracking Billing Cycle Metrics

The law firm business model is based on the measurement of 5 key profit drivers:  Rate, Realization, Utilization, Leverage, and Margin.  I would add another metric:  Cash flow.  You can really see a return on your investment in time and effort if you have a lot of time in WIP (work in process) and AR (accounts receivable).

The critical metrics that affect cash flow are the average days to bill, average days to collect (and by extension the sum of both to create the total billing cycle) and the average days in AR. Using a rolling 12 month period will give you an annual baseline, but you can also track it monthly. 

In the graph below, The variables are the total fees unbilled, total fees billed, and total fees collected over a 12 month period.  Knowing these numbers, you can calculate the total receivables outstanding during this time span, the average monthly and daily fees unbilled, billed and paid and your average days to bill, collect and days outstanding.

These metrics are critical for measuring your efficiency both at billing your work and collecting your fees.  If these numbers are high, then a review of your processes is due. Click on the graphic above to download and test with your own numbers.

Simplifying the Law Firm Business Model

The law firm business model, as defined by David Maister, is made up of the following equation:

1. Leverage
2. Rate
3. Productivity (Utilization)
4. Realization
5. Margin

If you are not tracking these profit drivers, it doesn’t matter how many reports you are thumbing through – they won’t measure the keys to per-partner profits and are thus, as far as profitability is concerned, irrelevant. The good news is that it doesn’t take much to track these drivers.  You can derive a simplified financial statement by just plugging in your numbers.  The below graph shows how tracking these key indicators can help you see exactly what drives your firm’s profits.  To download and plug in your own numbers, click on the graph.

 

I will be going over each of the drivers in more detail over the next several weeks.