Are Law Firms Ready For Rate Deflation?

After hitting 5% in July of 2008, inflation has dropped rapidly and is now in negative territory (annualized) for the first time in 54 years.  This creates tremendous spending opportunities but there are many risks.  One of the risks to law firms is a deflating billable rate.  With deflation hitting most aspects of the economy (food and energy being notable exceptions that at least in the latter case isn’t expected to deflate for a while and in fact may be the next credit “bubble” if, err, I mean when cap and trade is passed), it is only a matter of time when clients will either request more discounts or a reduced rate – and if clients don’t ask, other attorneys will offer lower rates to lure new clientele.  Many businesses will be working from much tighter margins while the cost of doing business, including defending lawsuits, won’t lower with their margins.  Something will have to give – either longer A/R outstanding or reduced rates.

It may not come.  But there is reason to believe it will.  Attorneys from large law firms who have been laid off are finding themselves entering the mid-firm market and some enterprising ones will start their own firms, determine a model that maximizes profit, and “Wal-Mart” some out of business while still raking in incredible profits.  All it takes is better efficiency in serving clients (and, in my view, an unprofessional but very business-like approach to targeting and accepting clients).  The relationship you have with your clients puts you at an advantage right now.  However, in forecasting models you should prepare for a fight for your business based on  rate.    

If you are faced with reducing rates to keep clients, efficiency is key to making up the lost revenue.    Don’t rely on volume alone as it can fool you into thinking you are in a better financial position than you are.  You may end up hiring excessive numbers of attorneys, especially as the costs of attorneys goes down (another inevitability that is already happening – salary reduction for new associates).  If you are still making minimal margins because you are too busy to implement efficient processes and you get undercut by someone willing to lower their rates, your firm will be in for a rather intense correction.

Even assuming rates don’t increase, there is a high probability that any planned rate increases will be difficult to implement.  Firms have been contracting for several months and most have already cut costs as low as they can.  A reduction in rate is an unplanned occurrence that can place even more pressure on firms to reduce costs.

From the firms I have consulted, most are still unwilling to invest in efficiency – rather, they are placing more emphasis on productivity and staff reductions.  There are a few firms who are changing their model to streamline processes – those who invest in better procedures will not only be in a better position to absorb rate stagnation (or deflation) but will be in a better position to increase profitability later this year when the economic numbers start to improve.  The test will be whether they retain earnings, a concept that is anathema to many firms.

Please note that due to the activism of the Federal Government to re-inflate the credit markets, there are arguably two possible results:  massive inflation or another asset bubble (which will lead to a result similar to what we are experiencing now).  Either way, the pattern of erratic markets is not likely to end anytime soon and with trillions being poured into the economy, money may get loose for a while – smart firms will invest in their firms (take advantage of the deflation) and set aside sufficient amounts to take short hits on revenue rather than make distributions (in case of a rapid spike in inflation or another asset bubble).  We are in for a long period of uncertainty.  Universal health care, carbon emission taxes, and of course the obvious tax increases to pay for the action taken already and to sustain the new entitlements.

Law firms will not be needed less (and in fact in some areas they will be needed more) but they are not immune to shifts to the economy.  There will be areas of rate inflation but your firm may not be one of the beneficiaries.  Some areas of law that have flourished for decades will suffer greatly and some boutique firms will cease to exist entirely.

Prepare for it.  If your firm flourishes and all the doom and gloom above doesn’t come to fruition, great.  Your bottom line thanks me for helping you have such a strong equitable position during your time of saving – go buy a new touch screen whiteboard or make a distribution so you can pay for all those projects at home.  If the firm struggles, however, you may avoid having to make decisions that are not only uncomfortable but can lead to a fracturing of the firm.

Process Modeling: Putting To Print Things That Work

For most firms, knowing what needs to be done to effectively manage a case is something learned through time and experience.  Unfortunately, this valuable information is rarely put to print for others to follow.  The result is constant “reinvention of the wheel”.  For associates, how well you can swim after being thrown in the shark-infested pool determines whether you become partner, career associate or looking for other work.

Likewise, if there is staff turnover, how quickly they are up to speed on your processes will determine how long it takes for productivity to reach or exceed pre-turnover levels.

Modeling your processes provide a concrete method for everyone in the firm to know not only what is expected, but why the expectation is in place and how to go about performing the task(s) in a manner approved by the firm.  This has several benefits, not the least of which is a reduction in the “change curve” time,  improved efficiency and the increased capacity to scale.

There is, of course, a process to building the process model.  The first step is to outline all of the processes in the firm.  This includes administrative processes, practice-related processes, client and matter-related processes, and any other process that pertains to firm business.

Once outlined, those who have the experience must brainstorm and put to print all the years of experience that has taught them to know on instinct what to do as the work-flow meanders from question to question.  Mapping this visually helps to find the gaps and gives you the opportunity to take out redundant tasks which may cause bottlenecks that reduce efficiency.

The example to the left is a mapping of a collections process (click on it to view in full screen).  It started with just picking a point in the process, going through the steps, then reading and re-reading to fill in the gaps and add in the details.

Once you have the process visually mapped, the next step is taking each step and reviewing why it is there.  The “why” helps to confirm that the step is necessary – if you can’t figure out why a step is needed, then it isn’t needed.  The “why” is also for new employees or others who may have to temporarily perform the task later.  One of the complaints I often hear from partners has to do with the lack of “ownership” some in their firm have towards files given to them.  In my opinion, a lack of understanding the entirety of the file is one reason an associate may do subpar work.  Thus, part of the process of taking a file from a partner should include a thorough reading of the file, paying particular note of certain things the partner always looks for to help understand the important issues in the file.  Although this is obvious to those with experience, it may not come as second nature to new associates or staff.  The “why” helps them see it from the partner’s perspective without forcing the partner to lose productive time in having to explain it.

This has more than one benefit.  Although highly unlikely (tic)¹, it may be that the partner’s time tested process may miss out on a detail or two that an enterprising associate or support staff discovers.  In cases such as this, having the “why” helps the associate or support staff understand the purpose and he/she then can propose process enhancement, furthering continuous process improvement².  (This can be encouraged through upward reviews).

After providing the “why”, the next part is the “how”.  Use a step-by-step approach so that others can follow the process in an easy-to-understand manner.  An example approach for a collections process would be:

1. Sort AR for collectible and non-collectible accounts;
2. Distribute to responsible attorneys to determine if any should be held from normal process;
3. Determine age of oldest unpaid  invoice;
4. If older than:
   1. 30 days – go here
   2. 45 days – go here
   3. 60 days – go here
   4. etc
5. etc

After completing this tedious but necessary list, model it visually through a tool like Microsoft’s Visio.  An example output for a part of the above process might look like this:

After review of the processes to ensure they are appropriate and are easy for others to understand, make it easily available for your staff to access.  In today’s connected world, this means access through a web browser.  Your site should be easy to access from within the network and should be easy to navigate.  An example site may look like the below (shown without theme – in practice it may mimic your external website’s design):

Besides the benefits discussed above for modeling your firm’s processes, there are quantifiable reasons as well that can lead directly to the firm’s bottom line.  For example, you can assign an amount of time it should take to perform a certain task.  Having this information available allows you to set baselines for performance reviews (efficiency of employee versus the firm efficiency standard).  It also gives the firm an opportunity to offer different billing options to clients; for example, if a client desires more cost certainty, the firm can offer a flat rate based on how long it takes to perform the tasks in a typical case, taking into consideration the facts and the potential to vary from the norm.  You can then add your margin to this number to provide a fee that is both acceptable to the client and ensures profitability for the firm.

As you can probably note from reading the above, modeling your processes is a tedious and time-consuming process in itself.  However, the benefits of taking the time to map, model and follow your processes shouldn’t be understated.  Not only will it improve the manner in which work is performed, but it can bring measurable benefits to your bottom line.

Of Counsel Consulting can help your firm map, model and price your processes so that you attain maximum benefit for taking the time to further the goal of continuous improvement.  Please feel free to call or email us for more information.

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¹ tongue in cheek – Go Back
² The idea of continuous process improvement isn’t new but is laid out nicely in a book written by Tom Pryor called Using Activity Based Management For Continuous Improvement that I recommend. – Go Back

Tracking Billing Cycle Metrics

The law firm business model is based on the measurement of 5 key profit drivers:  Rate, Realization, Utilization, Leverage, and Margin.  I would add another metric:  Cash flow.  You can really see a return on your investment in time and effort if you have a lot of time in WIP (work in process) and AR (accounts receivable).

The critical metrics that affect cash flow are the average days to bill, average days to collect (and by extension the sum of both to create the total billing cycle) and the average days in AR. Using a rolling 12 month period will give you an annual baseline, but you can also track it monthly. 

In the graph below, The variables are the total fees unbilled, total fees billed, and total fees collected over a 12 month period.  Knowing these numbers, you can calculate the total receivables outstanding during this time span, the average monthly and daily fees unbilled, billed and paid and your average days to bill, collect and days outstanding.

These metrics are critical for measuring your efficiency both at billing your work and collecting your fees.  If these numbers are high, then a review of your processes is due. Click on the graphic above to download and test with your own numbers.