Forecasting Attorney Revenue

Forecasting is important for law firms so that they are not found “accidentally” out of business.  There are tools available, perhaps within your own organization, that are more than capable of helping you forecast attorney revenue.  However, some tools are better than others at showing the results.

Below is a graphic showing attorney monthly productivity, any variance from the budget and the attorney contribution percentage.  Clicking on any of the attorney initals changes the data to show the chosen attorney’s productivity numbers.  (You must have the free Adobe Flash Player to view.  You may download it by clicking here).

Graphical dashboards such as the one below provides an easy way for managers to stay informed as to the critical performance drivers of the firm without having to pore over rows of data.  This, in turn, makes the information more actionable and thereby helps focus the firm on reaching its goals.

Feel free to click on any of the sample attorney initials below to see the data change.  If you would like more information on how you can have dashboards like the one below implemented in your firm, please feel free to email me or call 205.588.4OCC (4622).

All Bets Off – Massive Deflation And Fed Still Lowers Rates

All the ingredients are coming together for protracted, painful and seriously impaired economic conditions.  As stated in an earlier post,  a deflationary crash is characterized in part by a persistent, sustained, deep, general decline in people’s desire and ability to lend and borrow.   It appears we are in the midst of one.  Consumer prices, after a record decline in October, set another record in November, pushing inflation down to 1.07%.  After a year that saw inflation hitting almost 6% in July, this is a painful indicator of things to come.  In spite of OPEC’s threat to drastically cut production, oil prices are still relatively low.

Worse, the Federal Reserve appears to be acting counter-intuitively by lowering interest rates to “zero to .25%“, leading to speculation that once our economy does rebound, hyperinflation will be the next crisis.  It doesn’t help that our government continues to spend money it doesn’t have.

On top of all this, President-Elect Obama announced that his “stimulus plan” will be somewhere between $600 billion and $1 trillion.  The spending spree never ends.

The time to voluntarily liquidate assets has passed.  Foreclosures dipped in November, but few expect that trend to be anything but temporary in spite of Fanny Mae’s Christmas gift to renters of homes in foreclosure proceedings.  Best to hold on to assets and try to keep as much cash on hand as possible.

We can hope that the aggressive moves by the Federal Government will prevent another depression, but it sure seems like we are about to embark on the same policies of the Roosevelt administration that arguably kept the country in a depression for an entire decade.  One of the proponents of further governmental intervention is oddly a scholar of the Great Depression.  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke believes that the cause of the Great Depression was the lack of action by the Hoover administration to stop banks from failing and by keeping interest rates too high.  In Bernanke’s mind, it was Hoover’s inaction that caused the depression, not Roosevelt’s activism.

There are (at least)  two arguments as to what caused the Great Depression.  One argument postulated by Irving Fisher and furthered by Bernanke states that debt deflation caused the Great Depression and, in at least Bernanke’s case, government inaction during the 3 1/2 years between the stock market crash of 1929 and the swearing in of Franklin Roosevelt caused productivity to become depressed and unable to recover in spite of FDR’s programs for an entire decade.

Fisher was not exactly on target with his arguments in his lifetime (from wikipedia):

The stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression cost Fisher much of his personal wealth and academic reputation. He famously predicted, a few days before the Stock Market Crash of 1929, “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Irving Fisher stated on October 21st that the market was “only shaking out of the lunatic fringe” and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. On Wednesday, October 23rd, he announced in a banker’s meeting “security values in most instances were not inflated.” For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner.

Once the Great Depression was unavoidable to notice, he theorized that debt deflation was a major cause – debt deflation that could have been avoided (according to some) had the Hoover administration taken more aggressive steps to intercede.

The other argument is that it wasn’t Hoover’s inaction that led to the Depression but the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, which raised tariffs on goods sold to trading partners and led reciprocal action, skyrocketing unemployment and global isolationism.   Those who would argue this would point that both low interest rates and ample liquidity were available in 1930, but that due to economic uncertainty, few wanted to borrow and take risks.  Further, FDR prevented the economy from pulling itself out of the depression by overly taxing the population (specifically the producers) and redistributing wealth using a “trickle-up” philosophy of using government to employ the people.  Even with FDR’s policies, unemployment was still over 19% in 1938.

You can argue both arguments are right and wrong.  It is plausible that at least having a Federal Reserve that would have released funds to troubled banks could have avoided the panic that led to over 9,000 banks failing in the 1930′s.  However, there is ample evidence that government intervention did more to exacerbate the Depression than remedy it.  The primary force that led us back to economic expansion was the Second World War.

Unfortunately for Bernanke, debt deflation is intensifying in spite of his actions to improve liquidity.  What may come from all these measures, however, could spur the same depressed conditions that he is trying so hard to avoid.  If liquidity does improve, even moderately, inflation will be a large concern.  The question will then be whether it would be better to allow inflation to run amok or to raise interest rates and threaten the improving economy.

One thing I feel relatively certain in predicting:  so long as the government intervenes in the economy, there will not be a lot of certainty in the markets, which will result in further volatility.  And, it doesn’t appear the government is planning on taking its hands out of the economy anytime soon.

False Sense Of Security Still Prevalent Among Law Firms

In spite of overwhelming evidence that the booming economy enjoyed practically uninterrupted for the past 20 years has ended, at least for the near term, many law firms are still optimistic of their 2009 prospects.  I beg to differ.  I believe 2009 will start a strong shift in the make-up of many law firms due to the lack of any planning for the economic conditions.

Who can blame attorneys for being optimistic?  Regardless of the economy since at least the early 1980′s, lawyers have enjoyed consistently increased business and profits.  This has led to a complacency and a denial of the economic conditions that are facing the country.

Law firms aren’t alone.  In fact, the “big three” auto makers (Ford perhaps excepted) are acting out of a similar denial as they attempt to scare Congress and the President into paying for their internal problems.  Who didn’t see the failure of GM coming?  Was no one noticing the extravagant pensions being offered to the employees?  Did anyone who dared notice believe the ever slimming margins would cover the ever growing benefits?   Not likely.  As the Legislative and Executive branches delve deeper into the phantom pockets of our tax base, a  nice summary of the fallacy of “avoiding acting like Herbert Hoover” has been inked in an opinion piece by Todd J. Zywicki in the Wall Street Journal.

Law firms, though not nearly in the long-term slide as the domestic auto industry, is more sensitive to this economic downturn than many attorneys would like to admit.  Many firms have been spoiled by margins that exceed 50% without spending more than a passing glance at the indicators that led them to such bounty.  The issue isn’t so much a drop-off in business, though some firms who specialize in areas that are in the midst of collapse will certainly feel the pain.  Rather, the issue is how firms will retain good talent, retain their expected incomes and avoid layoffs of associates.

These are regular issues for most industries but are foreign to the mid-size law firm.  Many firms pride themselves in their “family” atmosphere, which includes the bratty sibling rivalries that are tolerated when times are good.  Salary incongruousness may seem a bothersome itch when profits are high, but once the deadwood becomes heavy the scratching becomes intolerable.  Some may panic to find their balance sheet showing a loss without ever seeing it coming.  Drastic change is put into place – at a time no worse to prepare.  No more is it wise to visit a market when hungry than to suggest change while in the midst of a spiral.

Yet our economy has afforded all of us time to prepare.  It was suggested by many (myself included as far back as March) that our economy was in for some hard times.  Firms with the foresight and gumption to plan and hold timekeepers accountable for providing not only quality service to their clients but ensuring prompt billing and payment for the betterment of the long term financial health of the firm are in a position now to profit over the firms who were complacent.

It’s not too late, however.  Many firms are just now seeing the first bumps in the road.  It is my opinion that the economic downturn is just now really beginning to hit middle America.  The massive layoffs (over 533,000 in November) are an indicator that the many months of body blows caused by the collapse of the credit and housing markets (not so unlike what happened in the late 1920′s, speaking of Herbert Hoover) are finally taking its toll.  The question now is, where is the bottom?

No one knows.  That is a troubling concern that should make you want to hug every dollar your firm receives and not let go of it.  In times such as these, power goes to those who hold cash.  This may change if our government attempts to over-spend its way out of our economic downturn (thereby devaluing the dollar, leading possibly to hyperinflation combined with stagnant productivity – a prescription for the “d” word), but as of right now, many believe that the economy should rebound sometime in 2010.

In my opinion, firms need to pay more attention to the profitability of each fee earner and place more emphasis on marketing activities and their key profit drivers.  Please feel free to email me (by clicking here) if you would like some ideas on how to not only retain your current income, but increase profits during an economic downturn.

Review of Kensington Slimblade™ Trackball Mouse

Everyone has a favorite mobile mouse; that is, except me.  I have tens of them and can’t seem to get comfortable with any of them.  One thing all have in common, though, is that they are bluetooth.  I hate having to plug something into my USB port to just run a peripheral and already have to do that with my scanner and presentation remote.  I don’t want that with my mouse.

Kensington seems to be moving more and more into the business traveler’s briefcase and with their innovative mice, they look to be establishing a foothold on the market.  I have both their Slimblade™ Bluetooth Presentation Mouse and the Trackball Mouse.  This review will focus only on the trackball mouse.

First, a little history of my distaste for trackballs.  Whenever I had to help someone at their desk and they had one of those large, rounded trackball mice, I winced.  I hated having to try to maneuver around the desktop with this clumsy and uncomfortable mass that seemingly required strong middle fingers.  I never felt comfortable using them and never really gave one a chance to convince me that there was utility in the idea.

With that prejudice, I did find the concept of this mobile trackball mouse intriguing.  The reason is not so much the trackball itself; it is more the functionality possibilities.  Kensington didn’t just place a trackball in it – it gave the user the choice of using the trackball as a pointer (regular mouse function) or as a (rounded) wheel to scroll down and across documents.  To change the function of the trackball, you need only double-click a button surrounding the ball.

Before I get to how well Kensington delivers on this, I’ll speak to the basic functions of the mouse.

1.  Footprint – the mouse is acceptably small (not the smallest and it won’t fit in your outdated PC Card slot as some will but it doesn’t take much space in your bag) and is light as you would expect from any portable peripheral.  It uses two AA batteries and has a power-saving mechanism that puts it into sleep mode when your computer is turned off.   You can also turn it off by pressing the button surrounding the trackball for 3 seconds.

2.  Usability – I read some reviews where users complained about dirt getting into the trackball roller and causing it to lose its trackball function.  I haven’t experienced that yet but understand any frustration that this would cause since it doesn’t appear that you can take the trackball mechanism apart to clean it.  In my experience with the mouse, the trackball worked flawlessly as did the laser that sits under it for normal mouse function.  As a regular mouse, it works well.

Underneath the mouse is a cover that opens and closes around the laser – I assume this is for transit but not sure why it is necessary if the mouse goes into sleep mode.  There is also a large (relative to other mice) blue button that is used to pair the mouse to your computer.

The reason why I wanted to review this mouse was to see if the trackball function would allow mobile users to use a mouse in cramped spaces where you didn’t have room to use a traditional mouse.  How did the Kensington deliver on this feature?

Pretty well in my opinion.  I have found myself using it in chairs and couches, resting the mouse on the arm (or on my lap) and using the trackball as a pointer.  Then, when I want to scroll the document, I double-click on the button, wait for the short delay, then scroll.  When I am ready to use as a mouse again, I double click again.

Granted, this took some getting used to.  At first I found myself trying to will the mouse into behaving the way I was thinking.  However, after some mental training on my part, I became pretty adept at utilizing the mouse as intended.  It literally allowed me to use the trackball both to scroll documents and as a pointer without moving my hand.

The only drawback goes back to my distaste for trackballs.  To me they have always been inelegant and take too much effort to use with any precision.  In this regard, I have to admit that with practice, the trackball can be pretty precise and without much effort.  It is really just an issue of training yourself to work with your finger rather than your wrist.

I can happily say that the Kensington Slimblade™ Trackball Mouse was a good purchase that will be the only mouse in my laptop case for a long time as long as it functions properly.